What to Expect in Cybersecurity from a Second Trump Presidency

From Trade Wars to Cyber Wars: How a Second Trump Presidency Could Transform U.S. Cybersecurity, President Trump could transform cybersecurity or leave it without the right attention.

On Tuesday, November 5, 2024, the people of the United States elected Donald J. Trump as the 47th President. As he is sworn in on January 20, 2025, with a Republican majority in Congress and the Senate, the administration faces formidable challenges. Addressing cybersecurity concerns, particularly from global adversaries like Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, will be a critical focus for the new administration.

Reflecting on Trump’s First Term

During his first term, Trump introduced several foreign policy and cybersecurity strategies that may offer insight into his upcoming term’s focus areas:

Foreign Policy Highlights:

• China Relations: Trump’s hardline stance included tariffs to counter trade imbalances and intellectual property concerns.

• Trade Deals: His administration renegotiated NAFTA into the USMCA to modernize trade relations.

• National Security: Increased defense spending and policies countered perceived threats from Iran and North Korea.

Cybersecurity Strategies:

• National Cyber Strategy: Unveiled in 2018, this marked the first comprehensive U.S. cyber strategy in 15 years, emphasizing network protection and the advancement of American influence.

• Offensive Cyber Operations: The administration authorized offensive measures to deter adversaries, showcasing a shift toward a more aggressive posture.

Looking Forward: Focus Areas and Challenges

With significant geopolitical shifts in Eastern Europe and the Indo-Pacific, a second Trump term will likely prioritize:

1. Strengthening Alliances: With rising global tensions, Trump may reassess defense commitments, particularly with NATO and Indo-Pacific allies.

2. Technology and Cyber Threats: The administration will need strategies to address advancements in AI, quantum computing, and cyber capabilities. Rapid tech developments present both opportunities and risks.

3. Cybersecurity Defenses: With rising cyberattacks on U.S. infrastructure, Trump’s administration will likely bolster defenses and emphasize international collaboration.

Cabinet’s Role in National Security

Key appointments will influence the administration’s effectiveness in addressing cybersecurity. Politico recently published a shortlist for Defense Secretary, Homeland Security Secretary, and Secretary of State; these roles will be instrumental in shaping and leading cybersecurity policy.

Foreign Policy—Key Themes and Expected Approach

1. U.S.-China Relations 

• Previous Approach: Trump initiated a trade war with tariffs to address trade imbalances, with a strong focus on cybersecurity threats from Chinese actors.

• Future Direction: Increased tariffs, sanctions, and a push for supply chain independence from China may be expected. Chinese technology firms could face intensified scrutiny due to national security concerns.

2. Middle East Policy 

• Previous Successes: Trump’s administration brokered the Abraham Accords in 2020, fostering cooperation between Israel and Gulf states.

• Focus on Iran: Countering Iran's nuclear ambitions and cyber activities targeting U.S. infrastructure will likely be a priority, possibly involving intensified sanctions.

3. Russia and Cybersecurity 

• Previous Approach: Trump’s policies toward Russia included sanctions and mixed diplomatic engagement, with criticism for inconsistent messaging on Russian cyber activities.

• Future Focus: A more decisive stance on Russian cyber threats and support for Ukraine in its defense against cyber attacks is likely.

4. European Relations and NATO 

• Previous Criticism: Trump frequently criticized NATO allies over defense spending.

• Future Strategy: The administration may emphasize increased NATO member spending and cyber defense cooperation within NATO.

5. Indo-Pacific Alliances 

• Countering China: Strengthening ties with Japan, India, and Australia may include enhanced military cooperation and joint cybersecurity measures.

Cybersecurity—Strategic Priorities and Policy Shifts

1. Critical Infrastructure Resilience 

• Focus: Safeguarding U.S. infrastructure will be critical, likely through public-private partnerships and stricter cybersecurity standards inspired by incidents like the Colonial Pipeline attack.

2. Increased Cyber Defense Budget 

• Resource Allocation: Trump may prioritize funding for agencies like the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) to enhance workforce development, technology R&D, and infrastructure protection. A streamlined approach under CISA’s leadership is anticipated.

3. Data Privacy and Digital Sovereignty 

• Data Protection: A second term may push for stronger data privacy laws and control over foreign tech companies, possibly passing bipartisan-supported privacy legislation early in the session.

4. Combatting Ransomware and Cybercrime 

• International Cooperation: Future policies may involve sanctions on cybercriminal-supporting states and strengthened public-private sector collaborations.

5. Oversight of Big Tech 

• Regulations: Trump’s administration previously targeted Big Tech over data privacy and censorship. Renewed oversight could enhance user privacy and national security with the collaboration of tech leaders.

International Collaboration and Cyber Diplomacy

1. Cybersecurity Partnerships 

• Allied Collaboration: Expect intensified cybersecurity collaboration with NATO and Indo-Pacific allies, potentially including a new international cybercrime treaty.

2. Cyber Deterrence with Adversarial Nations 

• Assertive Stance: Trump may adopt a more assertive approach with adversarial cyber actors, including North Korea and Iran, to strengthen deterrence and enhance national security.

3. Domestic Cyber Capabilities 

• Self-Reliance: Expect investments in education and U.S.-based cyber technologies, especially in defense sectors, to reduce reliance on foreign tech.

Challenges and Criticisms

Key Challenges:

• Policy Implementation: Gaining international and bipartisan support for aggressive cybersecurity measures may face resistance, particularly where civil liberties are a concern.

• Adapting to Emerging Threats: Cyber threats evolve rapidly, necessitating adaptable and flexible strategies.

Potential Criticisms:

• International Cooperation: Concerns over U.S. unilateral actions could challenge collaboration, especially following Trump’s previous international policy stances.

• Offensive Cyber Measures: An aggressive approach may escalate cyber conflicts, with criticism regarding the potential for retaliatory attacks.

Impact on Global Cybersecurity and U.S. Relations

• Risk of Escalation: A strong deterrence posture could provoke increased cyber aggression, potentially creating cycles of retaliation.

• Alignment with the Private Sector: Emphasis on collaboration with the private sector may reinforce cybersecurity strength domestically.

Conclusion

A second Trump presidency is expected to carry forward an "America First" approach, focusing on national interests and sovereignty. Key elements include:

• Foreign Policy: Heightened tariffs on Chinese imports, countering Iran's regional influence, a firm cybersecurity stance on Russia, continued NATO pressure, and stronger Indo-Pacific ties.

• Cybersecurity: Strengthening critical infrastructure, offensive cyber operations, and potentially robust oversight of Big Tech.

• Domestic and International Impacts: While bolstering U.S. cyber resilience, Trump’s approach may increase tensions with adversarial nations and require careful diplomacy.

On a personal note, I’m curious how the SEC’s actions against Tim Brown and SolarWinds will evolve under new leadership, and the potential expansion of the Cybersecurity Czar’s role in the White House.

In summary, a second Trump term will likely emphasize cybersecurity resilience and assertive policies aimed at protecting U.S. interests while facing complex international and domestic challenges.